If you have what it takes to be emotionless when it comes to the outcome of games and veiw your sports betting not as gambling but as any other investment you have in your portfolio, then you will be amazed at the huge R.O.I.(return on investment) potential that a smart bettor has. Here is the breakdown of the investment...
First off, you must have a bankroll set aside exclusively for betting. This is your investment. Here's the part that shocks most ameteurs...Picking 55% winners over the course of 1000 plays (an average of 3 plays per day for 1 year) will double your money. Hard to beleive? Not only is it true it also protects you against prolonged losing streaks that are common in sports betting. Let me explain....
55% winners over 1000 plays breaks down as follow...550 wins 450 losses. Add 45 to the losses for the vig and do the math...550-450-45=55 net wins. Since you will be playing over 20 plays per week you don't want to risk more than 2% of your bankroll per game.Let's say your BR is $50,000. That makes you a $1000 per game player. It is IMPERATIVE not to move off of that amount NO MATTER WHAT. That's the size player you chose to be when you made your investment. So after 1000 plays at 55% winners nets you $55,000, more than doubling your investment. See if Meryll Lynch has a mutual fund with that kind of return.
Of course, there is still a risk of losing your bankroll even with this approach. Simply go 50% for 1000 games and you're broke (500 wins - 500 losses - 50 vig = 50 net losses x $1,000 / game =$50,000 loss). Or go 48% over 500 games to be down $46,000 @ $1,000 / game (240-260-26=46 net losses). That's why I must emphasize that it's not as easy as it seems to go 55%-58% over the long haul. The linemaker is extremely accurate in the number he gives the bookmakers. With today's technology it is fairly easy to come up with a "good" number on a game by running recent stats and trends through computers along with injury reports and wheather conditions. All of this same information used to make the line is readily available to everyone online. That's why, as mentioned earlier, we're not conventional handicappers. By toiling over stats and trends you're just rehashing the linemakers work. He already used the same info to make the line that the average bettor uses to pick games. Sorry, but the average joe is not going to beat the linemaker over the long haul.
I can hear you now asking the obvious question. Here's your answer.... INTANGIBLES. We are constantly looking and digging and searching for bits and peices of information that we're sure were not factored into the linemaker's thinking when he made the number. Some of these factors should have affected the line by 4 or 5 points. These are the situations that create edges for us which warrant us to make a play. As mentioned above the LM leans heavily on recent stats and trends in making the number because that's what the average joe uses to make his picks. Therefore in the long run the average joe will go 50%,and even if you are smart enough to manage your bankroll perfectly, you'll still go broke. The only difference is you'll last longer than the maniac that varies his bet sizes and bets on "feeling".
Another way we gain edges is by putting ourselves in the shoes of average joe. Alot of times there is great value in betting against a team who just destroyed thier opponent the last game they played because public perception is that "wow, i never knew they were that good!" Well guess what. They're not. But after putting on a rout the LM has to factor another couple of points into the number. Those are free points for professional bettors. Please don't misunderstand, I'm by no means saying to go against every team that wins big it's previous outing. I'm merely saying that this is something that needs to be looked at deeper. Each case is different.
This site is not designed to be a handicapping tutorial, I'm just explaining the basics of how we go about gaining an edge against the bookmaker.
CONTINUE TO: The Power Of The Edge